The Last Economy by Emad Mostaque was a masterpiece (however controversial) to me. Despite being a slow reader, I finished it in a weekend and literally enjoyed every chapter. I will write another post on my reflections on the book soon, but for now, here is a summary of my notes.
The Event: What is happening (The Four Inversions) and why this one is final (The Metabolic Rift)
The Intelligence Inversion: A New Economic Reality
The core argument is that the arrival of Artificial Intelligence (AI) represents a final, cataclysmic technological inversion. It shatters the fundamental rules of the global economy, moving the source of value from human labor to non-metabolic, self-improving intelligence.
The Four Inversions of Economic Value
For ten thousand years, the source of economic value has shifted four times. The current AI event is the most rapid and, because it replaces our minds, the final one.
| Inversion | Period | Dominance | Shift in Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First | Pre-1750s | Land | From static assets (acres) to dynamic flow of Production (factories). |
| Second | 1750s-1970s | Labor | From human effort to Capital (factories, then algorithms). |
| Third | Post-2000 | Capital | From physical assets to the invisible structure of the network itself (e.g., Instagram). |
| Fourth | Present | Intelligence | From scarce, human-locked labor to infinitely copyable, recursively improving Capital. |
The Metabolic Rift: Why This Inversion is Final
For ten thousand years, all labor was performed by metabolic engines (humans) who required sustenance, shelter, and rest. Capital needed labor, and labor needed calories.
The Intelligence Inversion shatters this bargain. AI and robotics are non-metabolic labor; they require only electricity. Human labor, with its immense biological overhead, cannot compete on price. When the marginal cost of cognition approaches the price of electricity, the economic value of a human mind collapses.
The Broken Pattern: Why this revolution is different from all others (The End of the Golden Age).
The End of the Human Golden Age
This new reality breaks the predictable pattern of all past technological revolutions.
- Past Revolutions: A turbulent “installation period” (frenzy, inequality) was always followed by a stable “deployment period” or “golden age,” which involved creating new jobs for human managers and knowledge workers to operate the new technology.
- The AI Break: AI automates this very cognitive labor. The deployment will be carried out by AI itself, collapsing the traditional cycle into a “single, permanent phase transition” with no human-led “golden age” to look forward to.
The Mechanism: The underlying physics driving the change (Network Topology)
The Topology of Thought & AI Amplification in Economy
The structures of our economies and AI reflect the organization of intelligence.
| Network Type | Example | Characteristic | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hub and Spoke | Traditional Corporation | Rigid Hierarchy | Efficient but brittle and unintelligent. |
| Small World | Modern AI (Transformer) | Attention mechanism creates novel connections | Topology of innovation (machine insight). |
| Distributed Mesh | Human Brain | Countless redundant connections | Infinitely resilient, the topology of consciousness. |
AI makes these network effects absolute. The bigger the network, the more data. The more data, the better the AI. The better the AI, the more users. This is not competition; it is gravitational collapse toward a monopoly.
Emad mentiones his framework on assessing economy instead of GDP as measuring economy
The MIND Dashboard: A New Framework for Value
To navigate this new world, we need a new way to measure value. Every resilient system maintains four interdependent forms of capital:
- M – Material Capital: Organized matter in useful configurations (e.g., a microchip, not just silicon).
- I – Intelligence Capital: The accumulated ability to solve problems. The only capital that grows when shared.
- N – Network Capital: The trust, relationships, and communication channels that allow all other capitals to flow.
- D – Diversity Capital: The variety of approaches and perspectives maintained as insurance against uncertainty (antifragility).
The Consequences: The new economic reality (The Second Economy) and the new problems it creates (The New Puzzles).
The Second Economy and Its Consequences
The Great Exclusion
The economic network is structurally rewiring itself to remove humans from the center.
- Old Economy: Value flowed human to human through companies.
- Network/AI Economy: Value flows AI to AI through platforms. Humans are becoming topologically irrelevant—reduced to data sources or maintenance workers for the machine network.
The Post-Human Firm and Market
This creates a Second Economy—an autonomous machine-to-machine ecosystem—that dissolves our fundamental concepts:
- The Firm Dies: Replaced by “computational organisms”—fluid swarms of AI agents that “incorporate” for milliseconds to achieve a goal and then dissolve.
- The Market is Threatened: The market, a tool for price discovery amid imperfect information, is threatened by hyper-rational AI agents with near-perfect information, potentially leading to “implicit collusion” and a single, globally optimized computational graph.
The New Puzzles of the Intelligent Age
This new, “fast AI” economy creates a set of bizarre new macroeconomic riddles:
- The New Puzzle of Value: The Deflationary Spiral. What happens to an economy based on stable prices when AI drives the cost of producing almost everything toward zero?
- The New Puzzle of Labor: The Negative Value Worker. What happens when human labor has negative value—when hiring a human introduces more cost, error, and risk than using an AI?
- The New Puzzle of Capital: The Evaporation of Assets. How can central banks maintain stability when the value of a factory, a law degree, or a taxi medallion can be rendered worthless overnight by a software update?
He mentiones the three distinct futures this new reality leaves for us:
The Final Choice: Three Possible Futures
This new reality presents three divergent paths for civilization:
-
Future One: Digital Feudalism (The Default Path)
- Mechanism: Gravitational collapse toward monopoly, with a handful of corporations owning the core AI models.
- Experience: Humans live as users, not creators, sustained by a Universal Basic Income, living in a comfortable “cage” of personalized convenience.
-
Future Two: The Great Fragmentation (The Fear Path)
- Mechanism: Global paranoia over AGI leads to nationalized, walled-garden internets and the death of open research.
- Experience: A zero-sum AI cold war fought with algorithms, leading to a world that is technologically and ontologically fragmented.
-
Future Three: Human Symbiosis (The Wisdom Path)
- Mechanism: Conscious design for partnership, not replacement, based on the evolutionary principle of cooperation.
- Goal: An economy built on Universal Access to Intelligence (UAI), requiring a conscious psychological choice to release the equation of work with worth.
The philosophical shift required (Beyond Opportunity Cost) and the new “jobs” for humanity (The Arts of Being Human).
The Human Response: Unbundling and Refocusing
The Great Unbundling of Work
The Intelligence Inversion violently unbundles the five functions that a “job” has provided for three centuries:
- Income: Money for survival.
- Identity: An answer to “What do you do?”
- Community: A tribe of colleagues.
- Purpose: A feeling of contribution.
- Structure: A rhythm for your days.
AI makes human labor unnecessary for Income, forcing us to find new, more authentic sources for the other four.
Beyond Opportunity Cost: The New Scarcity
This unbundling forces the collapse of opportunity cost. We obsessed over the opportunity cost of our time, a resource AI makes infinitely productive. We ignored the opportunity cost of our attention, the only resource that remains truly finite.
The real opportunity cost of an hour of mindless scrolling is not the email that went unwritten, but the consciousness that went uncultivated.
The Arts of Being Human: The “Jobs” of the Future
When economic necessity ends, human necessity begins. The “jobs” of the future are not professions; they are the “arts” of being human.
- The Art of Attention: In an age of infinite distraction, the ability to be fully present becomes a superpower.
- The Art of Connection: In an atomized world, weaving the social fabric and building belonging becomes the most critical function.
- The Art of Meaning: In an age of infinite content, curation becomes creation. We must forge data into wisdom and ask which questions are worth asking.
- The Art of Embodiment: As the world becomes virtual, reality anchors—farmers, craftspeople, athletes—who bridge the digital and the physical become essential.
The Great Reversal
As digital networks become dominated by AI, authenticity becomes the new scarcity. Human identity will reverse course, re-grounding itself in the tangible, local, and embodied—a “post-digital materialism” where the most valuable thing is a unique creation your hands made.